Wednesday, April 2, 2025

Trump’s Eid Gift to Iran: Bomb Threats and Tariffs

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Donald Trump just sent Iran a bone-chilling Eid gift – the threat of bombs and tariffs. Reportedly, in an early-morning phone interview with NBC, the US president warned Tehran of military strikes if it refused to sign a new nuclear deal.

With his characteristic bravado, Trump declared, “If they don’t make a deal, there will be bombing – the likes of which they have never seen before.

Trump’s fiery rhetoric didn’t stop there. Still fuming over Vladimir Putin’s dismissive remarks about Ukraine, he also threatened secondary tariffs on Russian oil. Thus, sending a clear message: either play by his rules or suffer economic strangulation. This one-two punch of military threats and economic warfare carries significant implications – not just for Iran and Russia, but also for India and the entire global order.

Trump’s Iran Gambit: Sanctions and Bombs for Eid

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Iran’s Eid is marred by Trump’s threat of bombing. This is not just posturing, it is a calculated escalation designed to corner Tehran into submission. Under his first presidency, Trump scrapped the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and reimposed crippling sanctions. His “maximum pressure” campaign brought Iran’s economy to its knees but failed to dismantle its nuclear ambitions. In his second term, Trump is doubling down.

His message on Eid is clear: no more half-measures. Iran must either negotiate or face annihilation.

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What makes this different from his previous tough talk is the military dimension. Trump is no longer threatening only economic isolation. He is explicitly promising military action, akin to the US strikes on Iraq’s nuclear program in the 1990s or Israel’s repeated attacks on Iranian assets in Syria.

The threat is aimed at forcing Iran into direct negotiations, which Tehran has been avoiding by using intermediaries like Oman.

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Iran’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, responded defiantly, saying that Tehran is open to indirect talks but unwilling to trust Washington’s sincerity. However, knowing Trump’s hard heacedness – Iran’s leadership is rattled this Eid. Irna’s Eid-ul-Fitr is shadowed by threats of a direct attack on its nuclear facilities. Thus, this “Eid Gift” not only puts Iran in a fix, but also warns its regional proxies – Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi rebels.

Pissed Off at Putin: Trump’s Economic Warfare Plan

Trump’s rage at Putin adds another layer of volatility to the geopolitical chessboard in the West. In the same NBC interview, Trump vented his fury over Putin’s condescending remarks about Ukraine’s President Zelensky, calling them “counterproductive” and “infuriating.”

In retaliation, Trump proposed secondary tariffs on all oil coming out of Russia – a move that could dent the Kremlin’s booming wartime economy.

Secondary tariffs would mean that any country buying Russian oil, including India and China, would face US sanctions and penalties. This is a sharp escalation from Trump’s previous stance, which largely favored economic cooperation with Russia. His threat signals that he is willing to weaponize energy markets to bring Russia to its knees.

For Putin, this is a direct challenge. Russia’s war in Ukraine is largely funded by oil revenues, with India and China being its biggest buyers. However, the EU remains the biggest loser as they are the largest consumers of Russian energy. Thus, by threatening secondary sanctions, Trump is not only hitting Russia but also testing the resolve of Moscow’s trade partners and the EU.

The Bigger Picture: US Flexes Its Military and Economic Muscles

Trump’s threats, while bombastic, reveal a deeper US strategy:

  • Iran: Military threats are aimed at breaking Iran’s nuclear ambitions and curbing its influence in the Middle East.
  • Russia: Economic sanctions are meant to choke Moscow’s war chest and undermine its ability to continue operations in Ukraine.
  • China: The tariff threat indirectly pressures China, which relies heavily on discounted Russian oil.
  • India: With India being one of the largest importers of Russian oil, Trump’s sanctions could force New Delhi to choose between its strategic partnership with Russia and its growing ties with the US.
  • EU: Trump’s growing dissatisfaction with the EU on the Ukraine war is well known. The retaliatory tariffs are already hurting the European nations. However, the secondary tariffs would mean that anyone allowing Ukraine to continue its aggression with Russia shall face a crippled economy as energy suppliers like China and India shall hike up prices of Russian-bought oil.

Trump’s approach blends military coercion with economic strangulation. It creates a multi-pronged offensive that targets Iran’s nuclear program, Russia’s oil-based economy, and the EU’s attempts to keep the Ukraine war alive.

Impact on India: Walking the Diplomatic Tightrope

For India, Trump’s threats pose serious diplomatic challenges. Bharat’s balancing act between Russia, Iran, the EU, and the US is about to get far more complicated.

  1. Russia-India Relations: Tariffs Could Strain Ties

Pissed with Putin,' DonaldTrump threatens tariffs on Russian oil buyers; India, China in crossfire | World News - Hindustan Times
PC Hindustan Times

India is one of the major buyers of discounted Russian oil. Secondary tariffs would put India in a difficult spot. Either it continues to buy cheap Russian crude and risks US sanctions, or it reduces imports and loses a vital energy source.

India’s strategic autonomy doctrine pushes it to remain neutral.

However, Trump’s tariffs on India and Russia could force Bharat to make tough choices. The US has been pressuring India to reduce its tariffs and its dependency on Russian oil. However, India’s refusal to bow to Western pressure has strengthened its position as a key Russian ally.

If Trump imposes secondary tariffs, India may face a diplomatic test. It could choose to defy the US and deepen its energy ties with Russia, or it may be forced to diversify its oil imports, raising costs and creating inflationary pressures.

  1. Iran-India Relations: Chabahar Port at Risk

Iran US nuclear deal: Iran readies missiles to retaliate after Trump's threat over nuclear deal: Report - India Today
PC India Today

India’s Chabahar Port project in Iran is a critical part of its regional connectivity strategy. It ensures that Bharat has access to the Middle East without interacting with Pakistan.

However, if Trump’s “Eid Gift” ensures military strikes against Iran, this infrastructure project could be collateral damage.

Any escalation in the region would make trade routes unstable, affecting India’s access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Trump’s secondary tariffs could also impact India’s bilateral trade with Iran, making it more difficult for New Delhi to access Iranian energy supplies.

  1. US-India Relations: Potential Friction or Deeper Alignment?

India in danger of not being able to do business with the US after latest Trump salvo?
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While India is wary of US interventionist policies, it also values its growing defense and economic partnership with Washington. Therefore, Trump’s aggressive posturing could bring short-term friction but might also offer New Delhi bargaining leverage.

If India reduces its oil imports from Russia and Iran, it could demand preferential energy deals from the US.

Thus, asking for a reduction in the retaliatory tariffs and demanding cooperation related to national security. Hence, India could use this situation to strengthen its defense cooperation with the US. Meanwhile, it would be in a position to extract better deals for advanced technology and weapons systems.

The Road Ahead: Global Turmoil, Local Consequences

Trump’s twin threats of bombing Iran and sanctioning Russian oil are more than just bluster. They reveal a geopolitical power play aimed at reasserting American dominance. For India, this means walking a tightrope of strategic neutrality, carefully balancing its energy needs, defense partnerships, and diplomatic ties.

Trump’s “Eid Gift” to Iran—promising bombs if it refuses to bend—might trigger regional instability.

However, the real test will be for nations like India, which will have to navigate the fallout of US-Russia tensions while keeping its energy security intact. In the end, Trump’s threats are not just about Iran or Russia – they are about reshaping the global order, with India caught in the crossfire.

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