Saturday, April 19, 2025

Pakistan Violates Ceasefire – A Desperate Gamble or a Gaza-Style Strategy?

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Stray elements of Pakistan once again violated the ceasefire along the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir. This time, the Indian Army retaliated with full force, inflicting heavy casualties on Pakistani troops. The attack in Poonch follows a suspicious IED blast near the LoC in Akhnoor, which killed two Indian soldiers, including a captain. While this might seem like just another random ceasefire violation, the timing and circumstances suggest a much deeper game.

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Pakistani forces are not merely testing India’s patience – they appears to be deliberately provoking a response. But why? Is this a ploy to shift attention from its crumbling internal situation? Is Pakistan hoping to internationalize Kashmir by baiting India into a conflict? Or is this a Hamas-style provocation, hoping to gain sympathy and support from global anti-India forces?

Ceasefire Betrayal By Pakistan: A Habitual Offender

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Pakistan and its disregard for ceasefire agreements is nothing new. The latest violation in Poonch’s Krishna Ghati sector is part of a long pattern of Pakistani aggression. The latest ceasefire agreement between India and Pakistan was reaffirmed on 25 February 2021, in an attempt to reduce hostilities along the LoC. However, Pakistan has repeatedly broken this agreement.

Since the 2021 ceasefire renewal, Pakistan has violated it over 2,500 times.

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These violations range from small-scale border firing to full-scale terrorist infiltrations. Consequently, causing needless loss of Indian lives. The Pakistani Army, along with terror groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, has consistently used these ceasefire breaches to push militants into Indian territory.

Each time India retaliates, Pakistan plays the victim card on global platforms, crying about “Indian aggression.”

However, this time is different. The scale of casualties suffered by the Pakistani side suggests that India’s retaliation was swift, decisive, and deadly. Yet, Islamabad refuses to learn its lesson. It continues to stoke tensions, hoping to provoke a larger conflict.

A Calculated Distraction: Pakistan’s Internal Collapse & Fear of Balkanization

Pakistan is facing an existential crisis. Its economy is in freefall, with inflation soaring past 30% and the Pakistani rupee hitting historic lows. The country is drowning in $130 billion of external debt to China, Saudi Arabia, and the IMF. Thus, its resources are either sold off or leased, and its every move is dictated by these loans.

In simple terms, Pakistan has no money and no sovereignty.

But its problems don’t stop at the economy. Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and even Sindh are rising up against the Pakistani state. The BLA has carried out deadly attacks on Pakistani security forces, recently killing six Pakistani soldiers in Turbat. The TTP is growing stronger and has launched several suicide bombings, it controls many regions in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa unofficially.

Even Afghanistan, which was once under Islamabad’s control through the Taliban, has started defying Pakistan openly.

The Taliban is no longer willing to listen to the ISI. Thus, the border clashes between Afghan and Pakistani forces have increased. Pakistan is losing control over its own territory. Moreover, it faces a grim reality of Balkanization.

Balkanisation of Pakistan - Explained | UPSC Current Affairs | Samarpan IAS
PC Samarpan IAS

The breakup of Pakistan into multiple independent states – is no longer just a theory.

Faced with this internal turmoil, Pakistan’s military-intelligence complex is resorting to its oldest trick – escalating tensions with India. By provoking India, Pakistan hopes to unite its fractured society under anti-India nationalism! Additionally, it hopes to force the world to focus on Kashmir instead of its failing internal control in the nation.

Is Pakistan Playing the ‘Gaza-Hamas’ Card?

Pakistan's Secret Meeting With Hamas Leader | India Today Global - YouTube
PC India Today Global – Pakistan’s Terror Summit With Hamas Leader

Pakistan’s latest ceasefire violation bears a striking resemblance to Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. Hamas launched a surprise attack on Israel, forcing Tel Aviv into war. Similarly, Pakistan seems to be baiting India into a conflict. The timing of the violation is most suspicious.

Just days before this latest ceasefire violation, Pakistan hosted a terror summit attended by a Hamas advisor.

This means that Pakistan is not only coordinating with global jihadist networks but is also learning from Hamas’ playbook. Hamas used Gaza’s civilian population as a human shield while provoking Israel into war. The same tactic is being used by Pakistan. By violating the ceasefire, pushing terrorists across the border, and escalating tensions in Kashmir, Pakistan hopes to:

  • Divert attention from its internal collapse – If India retaliates too heavily, Pakistan can shift domestic focus away from its economic crisis and separatist movements.
  • Garner global sympathy – Hamas received support from Iran, Turkey, and anti-Israel forces. Similarly, Pakistan hopes that a military escalation with India will rally anti-India forces like China, Turkey, etc. Moreover, radical Islamic nations will also come to its aid.
  • Secure foreign funding – A military crisis with India might force the IMF, UN, and Gulf nations to pump money into Pakistan under the pretext of “stabilization.”

Pakistan is essentially betting on war to survive. But unlike Hamas, it is playing with fire against a much stronger opponent.

What’s Next? A Battle Pakistan Can’t Win

India vs Pakistan: Who has more powerful military to win the next Indo-Pak war? - IBTimes India
PC IBTimes India

Pakistan is running out of options. It is hopelessly short of funds and ammunition. And its Amry is fighting wars on multiple borders. The country has already lost credibility on the global stage. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF) continues to monitor Pakistan for terror financing, even if it was taken off the Grey List in 2022.

Its traditional allies, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are now demanding strict economic reforms before providing aid.

Unlike previous decades, India’s response will no longer be reactive fire and table diplomacy. The Indian Army has already demonstrated that it can conduct surgical strikes and airstrikes deep inside Pakistan, targeting terrorist camps and Pakistani military installations. If Pakistan escalates further, India will not hesitate to retaliate with overwhelming force.

The real question is – how much longer before Pakistan’s self-destructive policies push it over the edge into total disintegration? If Islamabad continues to provoke a mightier Bharat under Modi 3.0, it may not have a country left to fight for.

The world will watch soon as Pakistan implodes from within, a victim of its own terror policies.

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