As Delhi gears up for the 2025 Assembly Elections, the political battleground is heating up between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who has dominated Delhi politics since 2013, faces a formidable challenge from the BJP, which has been unsuccessful in securing the Chief Minister’s post in Delhi for nearly three decades.
The key question in this election is whether the BJP, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, can finally dislodge Kejriwal’s AAP government, or if the ruling party will retain its stronghold on the national capital. Opinion polls, political strategies, corruption allegations, and shifting voter sentiments will all play a crucial role in determining the outcome.
AAP’s Governance and the Challenges it Faces
Over the years, the AAP government has built a reputation for focusing on education, healthcare, and public welfare schemes. Kejriwal’s party has won voters over with initiatives like:
•Free electricity and water
•Improved government schools
•Mohalla clinics for healthcare
•Subsidized bus rides for women
While these schemes have been popular, AAP now faces significant challenges. The biggest roadblock for Kejriwal’s party in 2025 is corruption allegations. The Delhi liquor policy scam, which led to the arrest of multiple AAP leaders, has dented the party’s image. The BJP has aggressively attacked Kejriwal, portraying AAP as a corrupt party that misuses public funds.
Additionally, the longer a party stays in power, the more voter fatigue sets in. Many Delhiites, despite benefiting from AAP’s schemes, may want a change in leadership.
BJP’s Strategy: A Focus on Welfare and Modi’s Popularity
Unlike previous elections, where BJP primarily focused on nationalism and Hindutva, this time, the party is adopting a welfare-based approach to counter AAP. Acknowledging AAP’s stronghold among Delhi’s lower-income groups, the BJP has promised:
•Monthly financial aid for poor women
•Free cooking gas subsidies
•Expanded pensions for the elderly
•Better infrastructure in unauthorized colonies
By introducing similar populist measures, the BJP aims to neutralize AAP’s advantage in urban and lower-income voter bases.
Additionally, Modi’s personal appeal remains a major factor. The BJP has relied on Modi’s brand of governance, nationalism, and his vision for a developed India. While the Prime Minister will not be contesting the Delhi election directly, his influence and aggressive campaigning could sway a significant portion of undecided voters.
Electoral Trends: Opinion Polls Indicate a Tight Contest
Recent opinion polls indicate that the Delhi election is expected to be closely contested.
1.A survey by NACDAOR shows that AAP continues to lead among Dalit voters with 44% support, but BJP is not far behind at 32%. This suggests that the BJP has made inroads into AAP’s traditional voter base.
2.Another survey by Raman Media Network found that:
•37% of respondents favor the BJP
•32% prefer AAP
•31% lean towards Congress
•This indicates a highly competitive race where BJP seems to have a slight edge.
3.Some analysts argue that AAP’s voter base may not be as solid as in previous elections, particularly due to the corruption scandals and BJP’s aggressive outreach efforts.
Congress: The Silent Spoiler?
While Congress has been reduced to a marginal player in Delhi, it still commands a loyal voter base in certain pockets. The biggest question is whether Congress will align with AAP or contest independently.
If Congress and AAP join forces, they could form a strong anti-BJP front. However, if Congress contests separately, it could split the anti-BJP vote, indirectly benefiting the BJP.
Past trends show that Congress still holds some ground among older voters and Muslims, both of whom were previously AAP supporters. A divided opposition is exactly what the BJP hopes for, as it would allow the party to win several constituencies with a split opposition vote.
Kejriwal’s Counterattack: Positioning Himself as Modi’s Primary Challenger
Understanding the threat posed by the BJP, Kejriwal is framing himself as Modi’s main rival in Delhi. His strategy includes:
•Projecting AAP as the only party that prioritizes Delhi’s residents
•Calling BJP an “outsider party” that focuses only on national politics
•Highlighting Modi government’s failure to grant Delhi full statehood
•Blaming BJP for misusing federal agencies (CBI, ED) to target AAP leaders
AAP is also banking on its strong grassroots network to counter BJP’s well-funded campaign. Kejriwal’s direct outreach through door-to-door campaigns and social media blitzes aims to keep his voter base engaged.
Key Factors That Will Decide the Delhi Election
Several factors will determine whether the BJP can finally defeat AAP in Delhi:
1. Impact of Corruption Allegations on AAP
If the liquor policy scam continues to dominate the narrative, Kejriwal’s clean image could be irreparably damaged, making voters look for an alternative.
2. BJP’s Ability to Capitalize on AAP’s Weaknesses
For the first time, BJP is mirroring AAP’s welfare-driven approach. If the BJP can convince voters that it will provide better governance, it has a real shot at victory.
3. Congress’ Role
A Congress-AAP alliance could block BJP’s chances, but a divided opposition would favor the BJP.
4. Hindu Voter Consolidation
BJP may attempt to polarize the election, particularly by focusing on Hindutva issues and nationalism. If a large section of Hindu voters consolidates behind the BJP, it could swing several seats in its favor.
5. Modi’s Charisma vs. Kejriwal’s Local Connect
Modi remains the most popular leader in India, but Kejriwal has a strong grassroots presence. The 2025 election will test whether national appeal can override local connect.
Final Verdict: Can BJP Finally Win Delhi?
As things stand, the AAP still has an edge, but the BJP is making serious gains. The next few months will be critical as both parties deploy their strongest tactics.
Scenarios for BJP’s Victory:
•If the corruption allegations against AAP intensify, leading to a collapse of its credibility.
•If Congress contests separately, thereby splitting the anti-BJP vote.
•If BJP successfully convinces low-income voters that its welfare schemes are superior to AAP’s.
Scenarios for AAP’s Victory:
•If Kejriwal successfully portrays BJP as an “outsider party” with no real interest in Delhi.
•If AAP retains the loyalty of its traditional voter base and counters BJP’s welfare promises effectively.
•If Congress aligns with AAP, preventing a split in opposition votes.
The 2025 Delhi Election is shaping up to be the most unpredictable one yet. While Kejriwal remains the frontrunner, the BJP is closer to victory than ever before. The final outcome will depend on how each party navigates the coming months of intense campaigning.